“If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.” – Yale Hirsch The term “Santa Claus Rally” was coined by Yale Hirsch, author of the “Stock Trader’s Almanac”, and has been referenced by investors for decades. It is defined as the last five...

“The anointed don’t like to talk about painful trade-offs. They like to talk about happy 'solutions' that get rid of the whole problem – at least in their imagination.” – Thomas Sowell “Trade-offs have been with us ever since the late unpleasantness in the Garden of...

“You can observe a lot by just watching.” – Yogi Berra “A nickel ain’t worth a dime anymore.” – Yogi Berra “We made too many wrong mistakes.” – Yogi Berra We find ourselves in the midst of what historically is the worst stretch for stocks on the calendar. While stocks...

We expect stocks to rally from current levels. It is too soon to tell whether the rally will stick for more than a few percentage points but a meaningful low in stock prices is near. We still see a chance that stocks could put in a new low for the year but the...

“Never miss out on an opportunity like a good recession.” – Jack Welch “I’ve heard there’s going to be a recession. I’ve decided not to participate.” – Walt Disney The recession is upon us. We have revised our view that the recession would be a 2023 story and believe...

“There are no solutions. There are only trade-offs.” -Thomas Sowell “Goldilocks went upstairs. She lay down on the big bed and said, 'This bed is too hard!' She lay on the medium bed and said, 'This bed is too soft!' She lay down on the small bed and said, 'This bed...

These are times that make investing scary. Investors begin to question whether stocks will ever stop going lower. They fear that inflation is back and therefore corporate profits will evaporate. One half of the population fears the President and his policies. The...

Thoughts on Today’s Selloff The S&P 500® Index (“SPX”) was down over 4% at the lows today. This follows a day that saw stocks rally by 3%. To be sure, these are extreme levels of volatility, but I am more amazed by the hysteria whipped up in the business media....

Expect stocks to trough when fear peaks. Conversely, expect stocks to peak when fear troughs. This axiom speaks to why successful investing in stocks is difficult. It runs contrary to our instincts as humans. We are wired to raise our defenses under a threat of danger...

While U.S. financial markets took a rest today, in honor of President’s Day, the tensions on the border between Ukraine and Russia heated up to a boil. Stock futures are down by more than five hundred points while money is flowing into the safety provided by gold and...